.jpg){kind=link}
The Amstel Gold Race usually represents the switch between the cobbled classics and the hillier ones. This year though, likely because of the French elections happening on the 10th of April, the Paris Roubaix was moved back to the 17th. The Amstel, thus, shows up relatively early on the calendar. That’s not a bad thing. We get the best of both worlds: we can look forward to the pinnacle of cobbled racing on the 17th, and get a taste of what expects us in Liége (April 24) earlier than usual.
Around 2017, I believe, the organizers changed the finale from the Cauberg to the village of Berg en Terblijt. Honestly, I didn’t like the change at the time but now I’m all for it. In a race with 30+ hills, it seemed fitting for it to be decided on the slopes of its most iconic climb. And to be fair, that was an absolutely spectacular finish. I was a huge fan of the slower sprints, of how the people flooded both sides of the road and even of all the Amstel ads at and leading up to the line. I know I still get a similar experience nowadays, but the Cauberg was special, in my mind.
I do, however, understand the organizers’ thought process. And I can’t say they were wrong. After such a tough race, having the checkered flag atop the Cauberg all but guaranteed that everybody waited to make a move out of fear of going too early. Now, the Bemelerberg is the last climb on the route, after the Cauberg and the Geulhemmerberg (approximately 15km from the finish). Both climbs are still steep enough to make a difference but far enough away from the finish that the riders don’t need to be as guarded as before. If they attack and can’t get away on the Geulhemmerberg, they have a few kilometers to regroup before the Bemelerberg, which is also an easier climb than the Cauberg or the Geulhemmerberg.
Those changes make for a more open finish, way more tactical than before, fitting of a true classic. Before, all the action was focused on the Cauberg and started 3km from the finish. Today, the final 30km are a must watch.
Specific to the 2022 edition, I can’t find many differences between this route and that from 2019. This one is a bit shorter, but the altimetry is roughly the same. As you remember that race was won by Mathieu Van Der Poel, the big favorite for the 2022 edition as well. Let’s look at the favorites to win the 2022 Amstel Gold Race in more detail.
Honorable mentions: Philippe Gilbert (Lotto Soudal), Kasper Asgreen (Quick Step Alphavinyl), Valentin Madouas (Groupama FDJ), Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious), Juan Ayuso (Trek Segafredo).
- Alejandro Valverde (Movistar)
I probably should’ve put Matej Mohoric in this place but since this is the Spaniard’s final season, I can’t overlook Alejandro Valverde. This is the only hilly classic that is missing from his palmáres out of the Amstel, Fléche, and Liége. He was on the podium of this race three times (2008, 2013, and 2015), unsurprisingly when it still finished on the Cauberg. That finish really fit a younger Valverde like a glove. It’s baffling he never won the Amstel.
He’ll get his final chance on Sunday. It would be a huge surprise if he came out victorious given that nowadays you certainly need a strong sprint to win this race. Valverde doesn’t have that anymore. But he does have experience and intelligence. If the group is just right he might just add the 2022 Amstel Gold Race to his 4 Liége Bastogne Liége and 5 Fléche Wallone titles.
- Christophe Laporte (Jumbo Visma)
The absence of Van Aert gives his faithful domestiques a chance to shine. Laporte and Benoot performed quite well in the Tour of Flanders, finishing 9th and 13th, respectively. Laporte is certainly the fastest of the two, so he is much more of a fit for the Amstel than Benoot, in my opinion. It remains to be seen if the Frenchman can hang on to the group of favorites after a very hilly and very long race. Without Van Aert, Laporte can protect himself much more, increasing his chances that he will be there at the end. If he is, he’s certainly going to be a factor in the final sprint.
- Thomas Pidcock (Ineos Grenadiers)
The loser of last year’s epic photo finish gets another crack at victory, this time without his nemesis from 2021. He was actually the one who broke last year’s race in the final 10km. Sadly for him, Van Aert managed to hang on to his wheel and beat him in one of the closest photo finishes of all time.
The British rider has been finding his form recently with a 3rd place in the Dwars doot Vlaanderen and a decent 14th in the Tour of Flanders. His form, experience from last year, and quickness in the sprint make him a very strong candidate to take the 2022 Amstel Gold Race to Britain.
- Michael Matthews (BikeExchange)
His days of winning bunch sprints in Grand Tours are probably over but, as with many sprinters before him, he’s becoming a very good all-rounder (he always was one, to be fair). With already 4 top-10s in this race, including a 4th place last year, Matthews is one of the fastest riders that has the ability to be in the front group at the finish. Much like Laporte, the question for the Australian is if he is able to follow the favorites to the line. His recent stage win in the Vuelta a Catalunya and very good 11th place in the Tour of Flanders show that Matthews is in form.
He is probably the fastest rider that can reasonably be expected to hang on to the group of favorites. If that’s the case, he has a great shot to add the first spring WT classic to his palmarés.
- Mathieu Van Der Poel (Alpecin Fenix)
Last week I wrote that, in my view, Van Der Poel was as much of a favorite to win the Tour of Flanders as I had ever seen. I’m not writing the same this week. The lack of cobbles is a great equalizer. Last week I didn’t see anybody with Van Der Poel’s strength on the cobbles, power on the hills, and quickness in the sprint. This week the field widens significantly because the cobbles’ part of that equation doesn’t exist.
I concede that he is still the biggest favorite to repeat his epic success from 2019 and win the 2022 Amstel Gold Race at home. But while last week I probably would pick him over the rest of the field, I’m not doing the same this week. The more tactical finish of the Amstel means that it’s less about power than strategy and tactics. And the lack of cobbles means that the number of potential winners widens significantly. I still think he’s the favorite. Just not as much as last Sunday.