This is the first time since 2017 that the Giro doesn’t begin with a time trial. At first, I thought that the Italian Grand Tour saw how spectacular the Tour’s first week was last year and was trying to emulate it. But when I noticed that they placed a time trial on stage 2 I was perplexed. I think a big part of the Tour’s first week excitement last year was the absence of a time trial until late in the week. Well, I guess sprinters and puncheurs have one shot to grab the pink jersey before the time trialists take it for themselves.
The stage profile is very straightforward: flat until the final 5.6km finishing in a 4th category climb. The question that is not so straightforward is: is the final climb tough enough to prevent a bunch sprint?
In my view, the answer is certainly yes. The final 3.6km have an average gradient of 5.1%. Some sprinters may be there in the end (e.g.: Caleb Ewan) but I would be very surprised if enough of them were to turn this into a sprint finish.
I bet the reader already knows where this is going… Mathieu Van Der Poel. I’m sure he would have added a few hills and some cobbles before the finish to make it just perfect for himself. But since this is a Grand Tour, the Dutchman is going to have to work with what he was given. Which, to be fair, was excellent for him. Julien Alaphilippe, Wout Van Aert, and Remco Evenepoel are all absent. I can’t think of anyone lining up in Budapest today that can rival Van Der Poel’s speed and explosivity uphill.
I see only one name that might rival the Tour of Flanders’ winner: Biniam Girmay. The 22-year-old Eritrean has the speed and the ability uphill to beat Van Der Poel. Still, it would be a huge surprise if he managed to do it.
I don’t think the finish is favorable to Caleb Ewan. Despite the Australian being decent uphill for a sprinter, the keywords in that sentence are “for a sprinter”. 3.6km at 5.1% are serious business. Add in the fact that we’re at the beginning of a Grand Tour and everybody still is 100% and we have a recipe for some diabolical 3.6km. I can’t see the Australian reaching the end with anything left in the tank to fight for the stage victory.
Looking at two potential outsiders, Diego Ulissi has (had?) the explosivity to win on a day like this and Vicenzo Albanese has some quickness and is a rider I wouldn’t want on my wheel if I was Van Der Poel.
Other than a surprise attack that catches the peloton off guard, I don’t see how Van Der Poel doesn’t win this stage. Would I take him versus the field like I did in the Tour of Flanders? No. He hasn’t raced in nearly 3 weeks and his team might not be strong enough to ensure his victory. But I don’t see anyone that can beat him.