General Classification before Stage 20
I don’t know whether you want to consider the Giro exciting because we’re going into the final day with 1m5s between first and third or a disappointment because, quite frankly, nothing happened so far. The riders make the race and a trio of Richard Carapaz (Ineos Grenadiers), Jay Hindley (Bora Hansgrohe), and Mikel Landa (Bahrain Victorious) was never going to provide fireworks. On the other hand, I did expect the rider from Ineos to have the race wrapped up by now. He doesn’t feel as strong as in 2019 or, even as in last year’s Tour de France. Hindley and Landa are certainly surprises to me, but, to be honest, a full-strength Carapaz would have dropped already. I mean, not to be overly critical but Vicenzo Nibali (Astana) is in 4th, after finishing 18th last year and 7th the year before. And I don’t think he magically improved at 37 years of age.
In the end, I think all three riders are content with what they achieved: Carapaz was the pre-race favorite and will confirm that status in Verona. Hindley will put himself back at (or near) the top of the list of young general classification (GC) riders. And Landa adds another podium in a Grand Tour (GT) to a career that is winding down.
In fact, out of the current top-10, I estimate that only Pello Bilbao (Bahrain) and Hugh Carthy (EF Education EasyPost) won’t be thrilled with their results. Bilbao was already 5th and 6th in 2020 and 2018, so another 5th place, while an extremely positive result, doesn’t do much in the Spanish rider’s career. The same for Hugh Carthy, who finished 8th last year, and already finished on GT in the podium (the 2020 Vuelta). The British rider tried many times to win a stage, and it’s not out of the question that he’ll try again today. Bilbao, on the other hand, was mostly at Landa’s service, after his own team burned him in the podium fight by leaving him behind on one of the previous mountain stages. He could play an important role for Bahrain today, because it’s clear Landa can’t distance Carapaz on his own. But he’s already too far back (6m22s) to be a threat to the pink jersey.
We’ll carry on with the balance of the Giro after tomorrow’s stage. The Queen stage awaits.
To be fair, I kind of started with it today because, let’s be honest: there’ve been plenty of opportunities to make differences in this Giro and that rarely happened. This final mountain stage does provide rare inclines and toughness. But if nothing happened so far and 8/10 of the top-10 are happy with their results, what do I expect to happen?
Sure, maybe someone will crack. I can’t see a 37 year old Nibali holding on for long on such a difficult stage. But he’s too experienced to let a top-10 place escape him, especially when his team is counting on him to deliver a result that would save their Giro.
I will say the same about Domenico Pozzovivo (Intermarche Wanty Gobert). He already cracked on one of the previous mountain stages and I can’t see him following the favorites for long. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was distanced before the final climb, but since there haven’t been many attacking teams or riders in this Giro, it’s possible the top-10 sticks together until the Passo Fedaia.
Jan Hirt (Intermarche) and Emmanuel Buchmann (Bora) (7 and 8 minutes behind the pink jersey in 6th and 7th, respectively) are surely thrilled with their results. This is the first GT top-10 for Hirt and the first since 2019 for Buchmann. Both riders ascend in the hierarchy of GT riders in the peloton after this Giro. Both of them have solid leads over 11th (Alejandro Valverde – Movistar, 18m11s down on Carapaz) so their top-10 places should be safe.
The same cannot be said for Juanpe Lopez (Trek Segafredo), after his distraction on stage 18. He now has less than 3 minutes on Valverde, and slightly over 5 on Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain) in the fight for the white jersey. This should be enough to secure both objectives, especially since the team will no doubt be completely surrounding him. He is the most insecure of the top-10 (bar Carthy but I doubt he cares as much about it) so don’t be surprised if you see him insert himself in the breakaway or if Trek just takes hold of the peloton at some point to protect Lopez’ 9th place and white jersey.
From 11th down, riders will be looking to win the stage more than to get into the top-10. It’s possible that a breakaway win combined with someone in the top-10 losing touch with the group of favorites on the Passo Pordoi will make someone ascend to the top-10. In my estimation, Alejandro Valverde, Santiago Buitrago, Lucas Hamilton (BikeExchange), Guillaume Martin (Cofidis), Lorenzo Fortunato (Eolo Kometa) are the 5 riders in position to ascend to the top-10 if everything breaks their way today. But they’ll surely be looking to win the stage. Maybe with the exception of Buitrago that already won one and might be looking to take the white jersey off of Lopez’s torso.
With all of that being said, I will once again back Lorenzo Fortunato for the stage win today. Eolo needs to do something, Fortunato is in good form, and within the team is really their only way to win a stage. I want to believe that he will surely be in the breakaway and is already down enough on the top-10 (roughly 15 minutes) that he is only a threat to those that are a threat to themselves (aka: can’t follow the pace).
Surprisingly, it was the pink jersey that showed the most on yesterday’s stage. Still, Carapaz was unable to drop either Hindley or Landa and everything stayed the same in GC.
Dutchman Koen Bouwman (Jumbo Visma) won his second stage in this Giro in controversial fashion in front of Mauro Schmid (Quick Step) and Alessandro Tonelli (Bardiani CSF Faizane).
As you can see in the video above the finish line was preceded by a 90º degree left turn. Bouwman hit the turn in front and, in doing so, essentially prevented Schmid and Andrea Vendrame (AG2R Citroen) from fighting for victory.
I don’t like outcomes decided by the commissaires. I think Bouwman knew that whoever came out of that turn first likely would win the stage. He made sure that was him. And he was right.